For years, we have been hearing about the $100 genome. Two systems in particular, the BGI Genomics DNBSeq and Element Biosciences VITARI both claim the ability to deliver a $100 genome. That may be true at the machine level, but these calculations do not factor in the cost of reagents and any SG&A. If you actually factor that in (which you would have to, because those are real expenses), it is actually more like $300. So we are getting extremely close to the $100 genome, and should be there in the next 5 years, but we are not there today. This is also reflected in the costs of the main consumer whole genome sequencing companies.
Now, I’m all for industrial progress. You reinvest human focus and money into making the system cheaper, more reliable, simpler. You make the input reagents simpler. Maybe you can knock out this one chemical for one that is more scalable, meaning you have reduced the cost per base by a few cents. These industrial-side, operational and engineering improvements will keep driving the price of sequencing further down.
However, what I am not seeing, and have not seen, is someone taking a consumer approach and forcing the cost of it to go to $100. The companies that offer whole genome DNA sequencing, like Nucleus, Dante Labs. Sequencing.com, all range between $300-$1000. But when you get to $300, you are now in the territory of customer acquisition cost (CAC). CAC is the cost to a business for acquiring 1 single customer.
Business is quite simple. Like other systems, it is governed by inputs and outputs. Those inputs and outputs are measurable. In business, the two are CAC and LTV (lifetime value). As mentioned, CAC is the cost of getting a customer. LTV is the revenue collected from that customer over some time period (usually measured in the duration of that person being a customer of your service). In order for a business to be successful (meaning it makes cash that piles up in its bank account) LTV must be greater than CAC over its lifecycle (LTV > CAC).
If the cost per genome is at $300, why are no sequencing companies offering a $0 genome as CAC, then building the data structure (like Google) to further offer this for free? Companies like Nucleus are trying to build a market to value the genome, hence pushes into optimizing embryo DNA to ‘have your best baby.’ But polygenic risk scores are so small relative to all the molecular biology that happens in a cell, let alone a full human. So the question still remains: at what scale can we finally figure out the LTV of a whole genome? When does a whole genome’s LTV become bigger than CAC?
I have my own ideas, such as a marketplace for therapeutics (commerce-driven, but will require a lot of someone’s biological data), or advertisement like Google. Since it is a piece of information, historically these two business models have been the most successful.
I am not sure, but this may be one of the biggest opportunities right now. Especially with AI labs buying data and the culture of data acquisition starting to shift for the average person. What is the dollar value of someone’s whole genome?